Warc Data
The global economy is set to fall into recession, with the advertising market likely to follow in the first half of this year, though FMCG brands are better-placed to weather the storm finds WARC, the international marketing intelligence service.The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a monthly survey of trading conditions among purchasing managers in private sector companies – for February and March show the worst results for the services sector in recent history across the US (39.1, whereby a value below 50 indicates decline), UK (35.7), Japan (32.7), the Euro area (28.4) and China (26.5).The covid-19 crunch is filtering through to advertising; RTL, Europe’s largest broadcaster, has stated that covid-19 is hitting ad bookings, while in the US NBCUniversal also expects a material impact, not least because its Olympic coverage has now been postponed.James McDonald, Managing Editor, WARC Data, and author of the research, says: “The current downturn may not hit FMCG as hard as other product sectors, but it is likely to be consequential in terms of changing consumer purchasing behaviour. A sharp increase in e-commerce activity may result in online players becoming more significant as the gatekeepers to FMCG shoppers.”During the last advertising recession in 2009, advertising investment among the food and drink sector fell at a far softer rate than the wider industry. The FMCG ad market was worth $97.2bn in 2019, a 15.6% share of global advertising spend. Much of this money is spent online; for example, 55.8% – $28.55bn – of ad budgets in the household and domestic sector is invested in online advertising. This compares to a 26.9% share ($25.59bn) for toiletries & cosmetics.The food and drinks sectors spend most on TV, at $17.0bn and $16.28bn respectively. Brand-building is important within these sectors as products are sold via third-party retailers, not directly to consumers. These sectors are better-placed to weather the impending recession as shoppers continue to buy the essentials; the apparel, automotive, retail (non-food), consumer durables and leisure & tourism sectors will be disproportionately affected by a downturn.
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